NEW OH-9 poll: Harris-mania! Marcy-mentum!
The dynamic in our MI-07 poll has, for the moment, fully reversed
A few weeks ago, we polled Michigan’s 7th district — the most purple, heartland-y district imaginable. At that time, Joe Biden was reeling from an _awful_ debate performance and GOP margins were supercharged in nearly every race.
In our new poll, that enthusiasm gap has REVERSED. Harris-mania is in full swing.
A little background: We fielded another House poll with Inside Elections, right after Biden dropped out and endorsed Kamala Harris. The district, OH-9, is a classic midwestern blue collar Trump-voting district with a Democratic House member. Another out-of-central-casting battleground seat. Here’s the map:
You should read Jacob Rubashkin’s (much better!) writeup. But here are a few WILD headline results.
In this TRUMP+3 DISTRICT:
PRESIDENT: Trump/Harris TIED.
SENATE: Brown (Dem)+13
HOUSE: Kaptur (Dem)+10
A few things happening here:
— Overall Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. There are other factors at work too. But TBD if enthusiasm stays this high until November.
— Kaptur has a really great brand. Her lead isn’t just from Democratic energy — she has some Trump 2020 voters in her camp. We’ll see if polarization sets in and causes this race to tighten. But, if her (truly amazing) 2022 performance is any indication, she may have enough strength to stay in office. TBD.
— Bernie Moreno, the Republican Senate candidate, could become a real problem for the GOP. Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, isn’t a historically great politician. His win margin is usually about what you’d expect a normal-to-decent Dem incumbent to get in his state/year. Brown’s lead may be more about his opponent, Moreno — who is often compared to those bad 2022 GOP Senate candidates who threw God knows how many winnable races.
— Let’s see what the news cycle brings. We’re in a historic moment. We have a lot of weird, reality-warping moments (Harris’s VP pick, the Democratic convention, maybe other debates) ahead. I don’t really know when “normal” will be. But we should be on the lookout for it. Normal moments will tell us a lot about whether November will look like this ^, like our MI-07 poll or somewhere in the middle.