Belated: We got Utah right, and learned a TON about Republican politics

Hi all,

The only story in politics right now is Joe Biden — what he will/won’t do, what he’s thinking, etc. But I do want to quickly (and, of course, magnanimously) spike the football about a completely unrelated poll.

In the run-up to the 2024 Utah state primary, we polled the GOP Senate and Governor primaries. We mostly agreed with other pollsters on the Senate race, and we nailed it. But, on the governor race, we disagreed with the rest.

The only other poll in June put the anti-Trump Republican Gov. Spencer Cox ahead of Phil Lyman (a Trump-y challenger) by 42 points. Most analysts wrote the race off as uncompetitive. But we had Cox, the sitting governor, ahead by *ONLY* 13 points.

We were out of consensus. And we were right!

https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1805959219243274694

The results have shifted a little bit since then, but the takeaway is basically the same. In the nation’s most notoriously anti-Trump red state, Cox’s margin was way too close for comfort.

I have some longer thoughts — about how the politics of the LDS Church have changed, the weakness of the anti-Trump GOP and what happens when even a state like *Utah* steps towards Trump-ian politics.

I’ll try to write those up later — when I’m not sitting in an airport in Phoenix, coming off a long (good!) day of meetings. For now, I just wanted to update you on my latest big work thing: a race where my weird levels of attention to Mormonism, GOP primaries and Western politics paid off!

I appreciate all of you,

David